Rising trade tensions and financial risks slowing global growth

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) says global economic growth remains strong but has passed its recent peak and faces escalating risks including rising trade tensions and tightening financial conditions.

The OECD’s latest Economic Outlook’s growth forecasts for next year have been revised down for most of the world’s major economies. Global GDP is now expected to expand by 3.5% in 2019, compared with the 3.7% forecast in last May’s Outlook, and by 3.5% in 2020.

The Outlook says trade tensions are already harming global GDP and trade, and estimates that if the U.S. hikes tariffs on all Chinese goods to 25%, with retaliatory action being taken by China, world economic activity could be much weaker.

By 2021, world GDP would be hit by 0.5%, by an estimated 0.8% in the U.S. and by 1% in China. Greater uncertainty would add to these negative effects and result in weaker investment around the world.

The Outlook also shows that annual shipping traffic growth at container ports, which represents around 80% of international merchandise trade, has fallen to below 3% from close to 6% in 2017.

Link: OECD’s latest Economic Outlook

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