{"id":13881,"date":"2025-09-24T14:55:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T14:55:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/air-cargo-rides-wave-of-economic-uncertainty-xeneta-report\/"},"modified":"2025-09-24T14:56:03","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T14:56:03","slug":"air-cargo-rides-wave-of-economic-uncertainty-xeneta-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/air-cargo-rides-wave-of-economic-uncertainty-xeneta-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Air Cargo Rides Wave of Economic Uncertainty: Xeneta Report"},"content":{"rendered":"

A surprise summer of growth in global air cargo volumes showed no sign of abating in August as demand rose +5% year-on-year for a second consecutive month, but falling spot rates are likely to be a more telling indicator of the market outlook as shippers, airlines, and forwarders continue to battle against economic uncertainty, say industry analysts, Xeneta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the rise in cargo volumes, alongside a similar +4% year-on-year growth in capacity supply, the average global spot rate fell for a fourth month in a row, down -3% to USD 2.55 per kg. And it\u2019s these freight rates which may signal a challenging next few months for the air cargo market, according to Xeneta\u2019s Chief Airfreight Officer, Niall van de Wouw.<\/p>\n

The August decline in spot rates is likely even steeper once currency effects are considered: all rates are converted into dollars, which have lost -4% against other currencies over the past year. Shift in trade flows may be weighing on air cargo rates. Consider China-U.S. air cargo, for instance, which, in August, was priced at USD 4.30 per kg. Many e-commerce shipments have been re-directed to the China-Europe corridor due to U.S. de minimis bans, where the rate was USD 3.65 per kg. Such reallocation drags down the global average. A -7% drop in jet-fuel prices may have also helped keep airlines\u2019 costs down, muting pressure on rates for now.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is often said that airfreight is a bellwether for macroeconomics, but I don\u2019t think it is at the moment,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve now reported +5% growth in demand for July and August and it would be easy to take some comfort from these volumes were it not for the current market conditions. Right now, volumes are certainly not as bad as people feared, but also not as good as people hoped. In our April data, on the back on the U.S. administration\u2019s \u2018Liberation Day\u2019 tariffs announcement, we asked \u2018how bad will it get?\u2019 for air cargo demand. We still cannot answer that question,\u201d van de Wouw added.<\/p>\n

The big group of shippers influencing airfreight growth<\/p>\n

\u201cMore than ever, shippers are falling into three categories right now,\u201d Niall van de Wouw said. \u201cThere are those who will always say \u2018no way\u2019 to airfreight because their products simply cannot justify the higher cost of air versus ocean freight. Then there are traditional air cargo customers who always ship goods by air because of its speed and value for their high-priced or more perishable or time-sensitive products.<\/p>\n

Between these two views sits a bigger group of shippers who will use ocean to move their goods if they can, and airfreight if they must. It is this segment of the market which is driving the upturn in airfreight demand we are seeing.<\/p>\n

\u201cAir cargo\u2019s higher demand remains the result of mode shift we saw in July, with a bit of support from e-commerce. It is not an indicator of increased economic activity. It\u2019s just that airfreight is getting a bigger share,\u201d he continued.<\/p>\n

\u201cMany shippers looking to lessen the impact of tariffs just do not know how the market will look in 3-4 weeks\u2019 time because of the lack of clarity. Consequently, I think more businesses are deciding to take a hit and move their products by air – but this good news for the air cargo market remains under constant review. Overall, it\u2019s hard to see where strong, sustainable airfreight growth will come from,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Download the\u00a0August Economics Briefing (pdf<\/a>).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A surprise summer of growth in global air cargo volumes showed no sign of abating in August as demand rose +5% year-on-year for a second consecutive month, but falling spot rates are likely to be a more telling indicator of the market outlook as shippers, airlines, and forwarders continue to battle against economic uncertainty, say […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":12305,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[534,885],"types-de-nouvelles":[],"class_list":["post-13881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-freight-news","tag-air-cargo-en","tag-xeneta-en"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13881","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13881"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13881\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13882,"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13881\/revisions\/13882"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12305"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13881"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13881"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13881"},{"taxonomy":"types-de-nouvelles","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/axxessintl.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types-de-nouvelles?post=13881"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}