Global Trade Outlook and Statistics<\/a>” provides a baseline growth scenario excluding energy price shocks, forecasting that global merchandise trade growth would slow to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025 as trade is expected to normalize following a surge in AI-related products and the frontloading of imports to avoid new tariffs.<\/p>\nWorld merchandise trade volume is then projected to grow by 2.6% in 2027. However, a scenario where both crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remain elevated throughout 2026 would shave 0.3 percentage points off the GDP forecast for 2026; this would in turn slash 0.5 percentage points off the trade forecast for this year and up to 1.0 percentage point for regions dependent on energy imports.<\/p>\n
This would mean merchandise trade volumes would grow by just 1.4% in the high energy price scenario. Services trade would also grow at a slower rate of 4.1% in 2026.<\/p>\n
Beyond fuels, the Strait of Hormuz blockade has disrupted fertilizer supplies critical to global agriculture, with around one-third of the world’s fertilizer exports normally passing through the waterway. Major agriculture producers like India, Thailand and Brazil depend on the Gulf for 40%, 70% and 35% of their urea imports respectively. Gulf states face a food security challenge as well, with import dependency averaging 75% for rice and exceeding 90% for corn, soybeans and vegetable oil – commodities that would face higher costs through alternative routes.<\/p>\n
Source: WTO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) global trade is set to slow in 2026 following stronger than expected growth in 2025 on the back of surging trade in AI-enabling products. WTO economists warn that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could further reduce trade growth if energy prices remain elevated, noting that it […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":12134,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[63],"tags":[106,771],"types-de-nouvelles":[],"class_list":["post-14730","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-canadian-custom-brokerage","tag-world-trade-organization","tag-wto"],"yoast_head":"\n
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