WTO forecasts sustained trade momentum in second quarter

The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest trade indicator data suggests that global trade will continue to expand moderately in the second quarter of 2017.

The indicator’s latest reading of 102.2 is the highest since May 2011. The WTO notes that strength in the overall World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI) is tempered by weakness in certain component indices.

Combining a variety of trade-related measures, the WTOI provides an early signal of the current direction of world trade and where it is likely to go in the near future. A reading of 100 indicates trade growth in line with medium-term trends, while readings greater or less than 100 suggest above or below trend growth.

The latest reading is up slightly from the previous value of 102.0, which suggests that trade volume growth will be above trend in the first and second quarters of 2017.

Link: World Trade Outlook Indicator (pdf)

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