WTO trade indicator predicts the slow recovery of world trade will continue

The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest trade indicator data suggests that global trade will continue to strengthen in the third quarter of 2017.

The indicator’s latest reading of 102.6 is higher than the previous reading of 102.2 from May of this year, showing a sustained momentum for trade growth.

Combining a variety of trade-related measures, the indicator provides an early signal of the current direction of world trade and where it is likely to go in the near future. A reading of 100 indicates trade growth in line with medium-term trends, while readings greater or less than 100 suggest above or below trend growth.

The latest reading of 102.6 is the highest level of the indicator since April 2011, suggesting that trade volume growth will continue to be above trend in this year’s third quarter.

Strong growth in export orders, air freight and container shipping is leading the upward trend in the indicator as economic activity picks up around the world. Results for agricultural raw materials and electronic components trade have been weaker, but both indices have gone up recently.

Link: World Trade Outlook Indicator (pdf)

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