The recent uptick in container spot rates is “transitory”, according to maritime consultant Drewry, which remains “unconvinced freight rates have bottomed-out” and expects carrier losses.
“We are now anticipating that average global freight rates, a blend of spot and contract rates across all trades, will drop 60% this year… and in our first forecast for rates in 2024, we are anticipating prices will fall again, with the sharpest correction being on east-west trades, where we expect rates will fall by 24%.”
The analyst predicts the impact on the bottom lines of carriers from the collapse in freight rates will be “dramatic”. After record profits in the past two years, Drewry is forecasting an ebit of $16.5bn this year for the liner industry – supported by an overhang of expiring lucrative contracts. But, for 2024, it is modelling a cumulative $10m loss for carriers.
Read more in an article from the Loadstar