Some 3 million TEU of new tonnage arriving next year will most likely be “more than offset” by further market disruption, ensuring no respite for embattled shippers, according to Drewry.
As the prospect of more U.S. east coast port strikes remains uncertain, the maritime consultancy drew up scenarios with a strike in January and without one, and found that in both models, freight rates would continue to rise.
Port strikes “will have significant inflationary impact on spot rates, not just on the U.S. connected trade, but also by contagion on the other trades,” said Drewry’s Philip Damas.
“If there is no port strike, some spot rates will decline, but overall we believe there will be sufficient other factors, such as the increased emission trading system carbon taxes, which will increase by 75% from January.”
He added: “So it’s a bit of a return to increases in rates at a slow rate. Now, I should stress that global freight rates increased by 87% between pre-pandemic 2019 and this year, up 87% on average.
“Even if the Suez Canal reopens, we do not expect container freight rates will go back to pre-pandemic levels.”
Read more in an article from The Loadstar.