The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that the volume of world merchandise trade plateaued at a high level in the third quarter of 2025 following a strong first-half expansion driven by import frontloading, favourable macroeconomic conditions and rising demand for AI-related products.
Merchandise trade grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 3.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025 on a seasonally-adjusted volume basis. By comparison, the dollar value of trade was up 7.5% year-on-year in the same period, highlighting a widening gap between growth in nominal and real terms.
Stronger growth in value terms than in volume terms was partly due to currency depreciation, as the US dollar fell 1.9% year-on-year in value against a broad basket of currencies in the third quarter. Dollar depreciation tends to inflate the dollar value of trade flows denominated in other currencies, for example intra-EU trade.
In the first nine months of 2025, Asia recorded the strongest year-on-year growth in export volumes (9.5%), followed by Africa (6.1%) and South and Central America and the Caribbean (5.7%). Exports also increased in the Middle East (5.3%) and North America (2.3%) but declined slightly in Europe (-0.3%) and moderately in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), including certain associate and former members states (-1.7%) (see Chart 2).
On the import side, the fastest growth was observed in South and Central America and the Caribbean (13.2%) and Africa (12.7%), more than twice the pace seen in the Middle East (6.2%) and Asia (6.0%). North American imports grew by an average of 5.4%, while Europe recorded more modest growth of 2.4%. The weakest import performance was in the CIS, at just 0.5%.
Source: WTO