According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest Goods Trade Barometer, global goods trade continued to expand at a moderate pace in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The latest reading of 102.7 for the barometer index is both above the quarterly trade volume index and greater than the baseline value of 100 for the index, suggesting that trade will continue to grow steadily through the fourth quarter. However, the outlook is clouded by rising economic uncertainty, including possible shifts in trade policy.
All of the barometer’s component indices remain on or above trend except for the electronic components index (95.4), which has stabilized below trend. Indices representing export orders and raw materials indices are both on trend (100.5) while those representing air freight (102.9), automotive products (104.0) and container shipping (105.8) are firmly above trend.
The container shipping index showed the biggest improvement over the last three months while the air freight index lost momentum.
Export orders, usually the most predictive of the barometer’s components, remain very close to the baseline value of 100, suggesting steady trade growth in the near term.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends.