According to the World Trade Organization (WTO) global trade is set to slow in 2026 following stronger than expected growth in 2025 on the back of surging trade in AI-enabling products. WTO economists warn that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could further reduce trade growth if energy prices remain elevated, noting that it would also put pressure on food supplies and services trade due to travel and transport disruptions.
The WTO’s latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” provides a baseline growth scenario excluding energy price shocks, forecasting that global merchandise trade growth would slow to 1.9% in 2026 from 4.6% in 2025 as trade is expected to normalize following a surge in AI-related products and the frontloading of imports to avoid new tariffs.
World merchandise trade volume is then projected to grow by 2.6% in 2027. However, a scenario where both crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices remain elevated throughout 2026 would shave 0.3 percentage points off the GDP forecast for 2026; this would in turn slash 0.5 percentage points off the trade forecast for this year and up to 1.0 percentage point for regions dependent on energy imports.
This would mean merchandise trade volumes would grow by just 1.4% in the high energy price scenario. Services trade would also grow at a slower rate of 4.1% in 2026.
Beyond fuels, the Strait of Hormuz blockade has disrupted fertilizer supplies critical to global agriculture, with around one-third of the world’s fertilizer exports normally passing through the waterway. Major agriculture producers like India, Thailand and Brazil depend on the Gulf for 40%, 70% and 35% of their urea imports respectively. Gulf states face a food security challenge as well, with import dependency averaging 75% for rice and exceeding 90% for corn, soybeans and vegetable oil – commodities that would face higher costs through alternative routes.
Source: WTO