According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest Goods Trade Barometer, global goods trade posted a strong uptick in early 2025 driven by importers frontloading purchases ahead of anticipated higher tariffs; however, weakening export orders suggest that this momentum may not be sustained.
The latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer rose to 103.5 – up from 102.8 in March, while the forward-looking new export orders index fell to 97.9, pointing to weaker trade growth later in the year.
While the current barometer reading of 103.5 exceeds both the baseline value of 100 and the quarterly trade volume index, the decline in export orders and the temporary nature of frontloading suggest that trade growth may slow in the months ahead as enterprises import less and start to draw down accumulated inventories.
The most predictive barometer component, the new export orders index (97.9), has dipped below its baseline value of 100 into contraction territory, signalling weaker trade growth later in the year.
Source: WTO
