December 12, 2025
Airlines profitability stabilizes with an average 3.9% net margin expected in 2026
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its latest financial outlook for the global airline industry showing a stabilization of profitability even as supply chain issues persist.
Airlines are expected to achieve a combined total net profit of $41 billion in 2026 (up from $39.5 billion in 2025). While this would set a new record, the net profit margin is expected to be unchanged from 2025 at 3.9%. Net profit per passenger transported is expected to be $7.90 (below the 2023 high of $8.50, and unchanged from 2025).
Operating profit in 2026 is expected to be $72.8 billion (up from $67.0 billion in 2025) for a net operating margin of 6.9% (improved on the 6.6% expected for 2025).
Return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to be 6.8% (unchanged from 2025). Despite deleveraging and improved operating profitability, ROIC is expected to remain below the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) estimated to be 8.2% in 2026.
Total industry revenues are expected to reach $1.053 trillion in 2026 (up 4.5% on the $1.008 trillion expected revenues in 2025). Load factors are forecast to continue to set record highs with airlines expected to fill 83.8% of all seats over the year 2026.
Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2026 (up 4.4% on 2025). Cargo volumes are expected to reach 71.6 million tonnes in 2026 (up 2.4% on 2025).
"Airlines are expected to generate a 3.9% net margin and a $41 billion profit in 2026. That's extremely welcome news considering the headwinds that the industry faces - rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens among them. Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General.
Source: IATA