June 15, 2026
Middle East disruptions and high fuel prices halve airline industry profitability
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its latest financial outlook for the global airline industry showing a halving of profitability as a result of war-related Middle East disruptions and high fuel prices.
The regional landscape, however, is highly differentiated. At the geographic center of the Middle East war, airlines in the Middle East are expected to collectively fall into the red with weak demand and operational disruptions. All other regions are expected to deliver profits, but at reduced levels from previous projections.
Airlines are expected to achieve a combined total net profit of $23.0 billion in 2026, which is roughly half the previously projected $41 billion. It is also roughly half the $45 billion net profit estimate for 2025.
The net profit margin is expected to be 2.0% in 2026, roughly half the previously projected 3.9%. It is also less than half the 4.2% estimate for the 2025 net profit margin.
Net profit per passenger transported is expected to be half the amount achieved in 2025.
Operating profit in 2026 is expected to be $48.0 billion (down from $76.4 billion in 2025) for a net operating margin of 4.1% (down from 7.2% in 2025). Total industry revenues are expected to reach $1.165 trillion in 2026 (up 9.4% on the $1.065 trillion in 2025).
The passenger load factor is forecast to continue to set record highs with airlines expected to fill 84.0% of all seats over the year. That is an improvement on 83.5% in 2025. Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.1 billion in 2026 (up 2.4% on 2025).
Cargo volumes are expected to reach 71.7 million tonnes in 2026 (up 0.2% on 2025).
Source: IATA