According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest Goods Trade Barometer, global goods trade has continued to recover in the third quarter of 2024 after demand for traded goods stalled in 2023 amid high inflation and rising interest rates.
The WTO notes that, despite the positive signal from the barometer index, the outlook for trade remains highly uncertain due to rising geopolitical tensions, ongoing regional conflicts, shifting monetary policy in advanced economies and weakening export orders.
The latest reading of 103.0 for the barometer index is above both the quarterly trade volume index and the baseline value of 100 for both indices, suggesting that merchandise trade volume growth should remain positive.
After remaining flat since the final quarter of 2022, the volume of world merchandise trade started to turn up in the fourth quarter of 2023 and gained momentum in the first quarter of 2024. In 2024 Q1, the last period for which official data is available, trade was up 1.0% quarter-on-quarter and 1.4% year-on-year.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
The full Goods Trade Barometer is available here (pdf).