Global transport markets are entering a new phase of disruption, driven less by demand and more by fuel availability and cost pressure. Below are this week’s key developments and what they mean for your supply chain.
Air Freight: Capacity tightening as fuel constraints hit aviation
Jet fuel prices remain ~2x pre-crisis levels, with only limited recent easing. At the same time, fuel availability is becoming a growing concern, with shortages already reported in parts of Asia and tightening supply globally.
Airlines are responding by:
- Reducing flight frequencies
- Cancelling lower-yield routes
- Prioritizing core networks
This is leading to a structural reduction in global air capacity, particularly impacting secondary routes and connections.
What this means:
- Reduced belly cargo capacity despite stable demand
- Continued pressure on airfreight rates
- Less routing flexibility and longer transit times
Ocean Freight: Fuel shortages emerging as a new constraint
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—through which ~20% of global oil supply flows—is now impacting marine fuel markets.
Bunker fuel prices have surged significantly, with reports of:
- Supply tightening at key bunkering hubs
- Fuel allocation and prioritization by suppliers
- Carriers repositioning fuel to maintain operations
What this means:
- Fuel availability—not vessel space—is becoming a key operational risk
- Increased bunker surcharges and cost volatility
- Potential for reduced service reliability if supply tightens further
Source: Chamber of Shipping
What You Should Do Now
- Secure capacity earlier for time-sensitive shipments, especially air
- Review routing strategies to prioritize reliability over speed where needed
- Plan for cost volatility, particularly fuel-related surcharges
- Build flexibility into transit times as network disruptions persist
For further details and to discuss your specific requirements, please contact our team of experts.