According to latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report from the World Trade Organization global merchandise trade is expected to pick up gradually this year following a contraction in 2023 that was driven by the lingering effects of high energy prices and inflation.
The volume of world merchandise trade should increase by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 after falling 1.2% in 2023. However, regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.
WTO economists note that inflationary pressures are expected to abate this year, allowing real incomes to grow again – particularly in advanced economies – thus providing a boost to the consumption of manufactured goods.
A recovery of demand for tradable goods in 2024 is already evident, with indices of new export orders pointing to improving conditions for trade at the start of the year.