According to the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), growth may lose momentum in the OECD area as a whole over the next six to nine months.
The latest leading indicators support the view presented in the latest OECD Economic Outlook, which revised global growth forecasts downwards due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and continued supply-chain disruptions.
The CLIs are now either at or below long-term trend levels in most major OECD economies. Pushed down by high inflation and very low consumers’ confidence, the CLIs point to a loss in growth momentum in the euro area as a whole, including in Germany, France and Italy, and also in the United Kingdom and Canada. In contrast, the CLIs continue to point to stable growth in the United States and Japan.
Among major emerging economies, the CLIs now point to growth losing momentum in China (for the industrial sector) and slowing growth in Brazil, but stable growth in India.
The CLIs aim to anticipate cyclical fluctuations in economic activity over the next six to nine months.