The latest Composite leading indicators (CLIs) from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) continue to point to a moderation in economic growth in several major economies, albeit to a different extent across countries. The CLIs are designed to anticipate fluctuations in economic activity over the next six to nine months.
Among the major OECD economies, the CLIs for Canada, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom confirm having passed a turning point in economic activity, as flagged in last months’ assessment, and now point to moderating growth momentum.
In the United States, Japan and the Euro Area as a whole, the CLIs have also passed a cyclical peak, but have since remained relatively stable. In France, the CLI points to stable growth around the long-term trend.
Among the major emerging-market economies, the CLI for China (industrial sector) continues to point to growth losing momentum, with similar indications now emerging for India and slowing growth continuing in Brazil. In Russia, the CLI now points to stable growth.