According to the latest Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), growth continues to slow in the OECD area as a whole.
Among major OECD economies, the CLIs, dragged down by high inflation, increasing interest rates and declining share prices, remain below trend and continue to anticipate growth losing momentum in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, as well as in the euro area as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy. By contrast, in Japan, the CLI continues to point to stable growth.
Signals are mixed among major emerging economies. Driven byproduction of motor vehicles and crude steel, the CLI for China (industrial sector) shows tentative signs of stabilisation this month, albeit remaining below trend. Similar signs are also emerging in Brazil, where the were CLIis pulled up by share prices. On the other hand, the CLI for India now indicates growth losing momentum, negatively affected by the contractions of the monetary indicators.
The OECD CLIs are cyclical indicators based on a range of forward-looking indicators such as order books, building permits, confidence indicators, long-term interest rates, new car registrations and many more.