According to the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) latest Goods Trade Barometer global merchandise trade was steady but below the recent trend line, suggesting that global goods trade continued to grow in the second quarter of 2022 but that the pace of growth was slower than in Q1 and is likely to remain weak in the second half of the year.
The components of the goods barometer are a mixed bag, with most indices showing on trend or below trend growth.
The forward-looking export orders index (100.1) is on trend but has turned downwards. The automotive products index (99.0) is only slightly below trend but has lost its upward momentum. Indices for air freight (96.9) and electronic components (95.6) are below trend and pointing down, while the raw materials index (101.0) has recently risen slightly above trend.
The main exception is the container shipping index (103.2), which has risen firmly above trend as shipments through Chinese ports have increased with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends ahead of conventional trade volume statistics.